The
spectacular electoral victory of Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) in 2014 general election
slightly diminished by a blank the party has drawn in the southern State of
Kerala. Kerala is the only major State not to send a BJP representative to the
16th Lok
Sabha. Above all, despite more than half a century of sustained activity,
Kerala remains the only major state in India to have never elected a
parliamentary or state assembly representative belonging to BJP or its
predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh(BJS). Even though the southern states
formed a fortress against BJP for long, a breakthrough has achieved in
Karnataka. Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala still remain just as
toeholds for BJP. While the unimpressive performance in Tamilnadu and Andhra
Pradesh can be attributed to the presence of established regional parties, the
reasons for inhospitable environment for the BJP in Kerala lies elsewhere. Even
though the Malayali regional identity is strong, the dominant parties in Kerala
– CPM and the Congress – are polity-wide parties. Due to their national
character, the discussions surrounding Loksabha elections predominantly feature
national issues. Therefore, unlike Tamil Nadu and Andhra, the dismal
performance of BJP in the state has to be explained using variables other than
the regionalist party system. A detailed analysis of special features of social
composition, discourses surrounding communalism and the institutional and
organizational factors would shed light on the poor performance of BJP.
With
the brief explanation on the ideological character and mobilization strategies
of BJP, the paper moves on to examine why these strategies and ideologies
failed to make inroads in Kerala. Multiple factors converge to inhibit Hindu
vote consolidation and thereby BJP’s advancement, among them, the principle
factor is ideologically driven political landscape, creating a political
untouchability towards BJP. By tracing back the dormant communal consciousness
in the Kerala society, the paper attempts to interrogate the claim which
portrays Kerala society as the most religiously tolerant and cosmopolitan
state. And several recent controversies which shaped the communal discourse
also signal a sharpened resurfacing of dormant communal consciousness. With the
all powerful government at the centre and a favorable communal discourse in the
state, BJP gains more acceptability and recognition which would translate into
promising electoral outcomes. The paper restricts its focus on the events and
processes after the formation of the present UDF state government that is from
2011, to grasp the detailed recent undercurrents in the communal discourse.
Ideology and Strategy
of BJP
A
detailed statement of the ideologies and strategies of the BJP has to be made
before moving on to the discussions on the prospects of the party in Kerala. At
least in theory, the principal ideological stands of BJP, as expounded in ‘Our
five commitments are nationalism and
national integration, democracy and fundamental rights, positive secularism,
Gandhian socialism and value-based politics. This would present BJP as a
progressive party with liberal and humanitarian concerns.
However, the party - an offshoot of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS) - always
seen to be the political arm of Hindutva forces. The BJP must be seen as the
latest and currently the most vital political force striving to build a united
Indian nation, a dynamic economy and a strong state. It seeks to overcome the
heterogeneity and caste divisiveness of Indian society by consolidating a sense
of Hindu nationalism around symbols common to all who claim to be Hindus. But
it is also noteworthy that the party has always oscillated
between a militant and moderate approach to politics..
Even while the party reaped much electoral dividend by communalizing the
political field, their leaders were always inclined to adopt a moderate
position to enable coalitions and to create consensus. Describing this dual
political stand of the BJP, A. G Noorani comments:
“A strikingly consistent
feature of the BJP is calculated ambiguity. They are innately communal but
intensely resent the charge and claim to be ‘nationalists’. They would avow
that their political lexicon ‘Hindu’ covers all who are born in Hindustan. In definitive
pronouncements and policies, however, it is Hindus as ‘the majority community’
harassed by the very ‘minorities’ whom they had ‘appeased’ “
The
growth and consolidation of BJP in the Indian politics was gradual. It advanced
by capitalizing on anti incumbencies and with the aid of communal tensions.
Although the party did relatively well in the state assembly elections in 1980s
such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, it failed to get a head start
in the national level. It is only by co-opting the radical anti-Muslim
discourse and the political pragmatism of Sangh Parivar, the party deepened its
social base. It also employed an array of issues and new technologies of mass
mobilization to disseminate the radical agenda. The election campaign of BJP in North India most often preceded and accompanied
by months of Hindu-Muslim communal tensions and severe rioting. Therefore, the
BJP’s drive for national consolidation has been inseparable from an
intensification of bitter communal conflicts. It
is also being observed that the BJP could attract many of the upper caste
Hindus into its support base at the wake of implementation of Mandal Commission
recommendation which reserved educational seats and government jobs for
backward caste. As a result of these
tactics and strategies, solid social base of BJP is constituted by the Hindu,
upper caste, and Hindi-speaking. However, 2014 general election witnessed an
unprecedented social coalition between upper caste and OBCs coupled with the
‘Modi effect’, placing the party into the center of Indian politics.
Yet, despite BJP’s dramatic victory, its support base remained circumscribed,
both socially and geographically.
Kerala indicates the limit of its reach. If BJP wishes to maintain the
majority, it will need to build a wider and deeper organizational base and have
to expand its pockets of influence.
Hence, Kerala is important for BJP to retain the power as well as to emerge as
a genuine pan-Indian force. According to James Chirayankandathil,
the main significance of the Hindu nationalism and BJP lies in
“… throwing into sharp
relief the social and regional factors inhibiting their emergence as a
genuinely pan-Indian force. The dilemma of BJP faces in Kerala is not peculiar
to the state. It highlights a choice it cannot indefinitely avoid making as a
national party in a diverse federal polity…In fact, it would not be an
exaggeration to suggest that if Hindu nationalism could achieve a breakthrough in
such an inhospitable setting as Kerala, it would demonstrate that it has the
potential to do so virtually anywhere in India.”
Why there is a
‘political untouchability’ to BJP in Kerala?
The
modern state of Kerala was formed in 1956 by merging much of the former
princely states of Travancore and Cochin, united since 1949, with Malabar and
Kasargod, hitherto parts of Madras state. Politics in Kerala is dominated by
two coalition fronts: the Communist Party of India(Marxist)-led Left Democratic
Front (LDF) and the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF)
since late 1970s. These two coalitions have been alternatively voted to power
since 1982. Most of the major political parties in Kerala, except for Bharatiya
Janata Party, belong to one or the other of these two alliances and have in the
past shifting allegiances a number of times. In
Kerala, it is difficult for a single party to contest and win even a single
seat, because the voter perception is towards voting for a front.
Diversified
and geographically scattered communities provide a mosaic view of Kerala
society. According to the 2001 Census of India figures, 56% of Kerala residents
are Hindus, 24% are Muslims, 19% are Christians, making the society truly
plural in character. Within the Hindu fold there are two communities, viz.
Nairs and Ezhavas. Nairs, who constitute 16 percent of the population and
largely benefited from modern education, have been historically the warrior
caste of Kerala and owners of large land estates until early twentieth century.
Ezhavas, who constitute 26 per cent of the population, are the leading
community among the lower caste and benefitted from social reform movements and
modern education. The Christians consist of forward and backward groups. The
larger and influential group called Syrian Christians is the leading farming
and business community and pioneers in the field of education and print media.
Muslims, who constitute 24 per cent of the population, is considered to be a
socially and economically backward community. However, the
remittances from Gulf migrants have substantially improved their social and
economic condition and presently an influential force in the economy. One
important feature about these communities is their geographical concentration.
Although they are scattered all over the state, they have certain areas of
concentration or what may be called ‘pocket boroughs’.
The direct impact of this population distribution is visible on the strength of
the communal parties that seek to represent these communities. The Kerala
congress secures the largest representation from the Christian dominated areas,
and the Muslim league from the Muslim dominated district Malappuram.
The
electoral performance of the BJP in the state broadly reflects these
demographic features. The electoral performance of BJP in the Lok Sabha
elections since 1980, given in the Table 1, shows that the voting share of BJP
always hovered around 5-10%, insufficient to win a seat so far. State wise data
is hardly any help in studying the social base and influence of the party. But
sub-regional analysis does. Traditionally, the BJP has strong footholds in
Thiruvananthapuram due to the strong influence of Hindu consciousness as
well as in Kasaragodu because of the non-Malayali majority population.
Interestingly, the other districts in which it consistently did better than in
the state overall were Malappuram and Kozhikode, the two with the highest
proportion of Muslims. In the districts where non-Hindu communities dominate,
BJP could gain more vote share,
probably due to the consolidation of Hindu votes as a result of growing
insecurity. The recent general election also confirms the communal voting
patterns as shown in the chart 1. These electoral data indicates that it is
essential for BJP in Kerala to pool votes from the backward Hindus which have
traditionally been supported communist parties and this fact has been
acknowledge by the BJP and part of their recent Kerala plan.
Communist parties in the state are more appealing to the backward caste Hindu
population. The strong ideological
stand taken by the communist party against Hindu communalists has erected a
fierce opposition, most often culminating in political
murders. For instance, in Kannur district where the CPI(M) prides itself in
offering stiff resistance to Sangh Parivar, experiences violent political
clashes in which nearly 180 people have lost their lives since 1980, a majority
of them being CPI(M) and BJP-RSS workers.Therefore the ideological and violent resistance by CPI(M) create a hostile
condition for BJP to evolve and expand in the state. Ideologically driven
politics in the state also made it hard for BJP to form coalitions. In many states
BJP has expanded its base through aligning with regional parties. Given the
ideological moorings of BJP, congress cannot accept its national level arch
rival and on the other hand communist parties on any account tolerate BJP.
Between these two powerful political currents, the dilemma of the BJP is
indefinitely continuing in the state.
These
demographic features loom large in the discussion on the prospects for BJP.
Several efforts by the Sangh Parivar to unify the Hindus and to consolidate the
vote bank were hampered by the persisting, if gradually declining, influence
and rivalry of caste associations, the NSS and
SNDP. Caste rivalry among Hindus in Kerala
persisted due to socio-economic factors, such as, high rate of unemployment,
higher standards of education, caste based reservation policies, the attitude
of various governments towards minorities All these situations were beyond the grip of either RSS or BJP and hence they
could not develop an environment suitable for Hindu unity. While public
attempts to deny distinctions based on caste were symbolically significant,
they were not entirely successful in overcoming the widespread perception that
the Sangh Parivar institutions catered
primarily for caste Hindus. Both organizations
traditionally support either UDF or LDF in elections and have never aliened
behind BJP.
As
these unfavorable conditions converge, there developed a practice of political
untouchability towards BJP. Interestingly, as a perfect reflection of this
political untouchability, political leaders in Kerala, fearing the charge of
communal, strictly abstained from any harmless association with BJP in the
recent election. Sharing a stage with BJP leaders even for a non-political
function had also perceived as an inclination towards communal fold. The
inauguration of a 'Run for Unity' - a commemorative event sponsored by BJP's
prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi to mark the death anniversary of
Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel – by the chief whip of UDF government was a heated
discussion causing embarrassment to the government.
Strict observance of political untouchability is maintained with BJP by all the
parties, mainly due to the fear of losing significant minority votes. Absence
of appealing leadership capable of breaking this vicious problem of
untouchability contributed to the troubles of the party in Kerala.
Will
Untouchability sustain? : Communal discourse in Kerala and prospects of BJP
Notwithstanding
the small size, there are a number of distinctive social and political factors
delineating the state of Kerala from other Indian states. The radical social
and political reform movements and well organized communist party have created
a politically aware public in the state.
Language, geography and administrative apparatus generate a sub-national
identity which is still evolving
in the plural society. Historically,
Kerala became the first destination in India for Christians,
Jews, and Muslims whose descendants have added a cosmopolitan flavor to the state's 29 million
people who are predominantly Hindu. The ‘cosmopolitan character’ of the polity
and society is most often projected in the midst of active religious community
organizations. Their contributions to social reform, democratic functioning,
education, health care and social concerns have contributed to the development
of a secular society.
Since
BJP finds fertile ground for its growth in a communalized polity and the
consequential consolidated Hindu votes, a critical scrutiny of the so called
secular credentials of Kerala society deserves special attention in examining
the prospects of the party in Kerala. Writing about the political development
in Kerala, V.K Sukumaran Nayar, says that the politics of Travancore and Cochin
region was dominated by interest-group based on caste and religion.
The Mappila rebellion, an armed uprising in 1921 against British authority and
Hindus as a response to the heavy handed crack down on the Khilafat movement in
which ten thousand Muslims were killed, reflect the prevalence of communal
patterns in the Malabar region too.
Therefore, the coming together of various factions of the Kerala Congress (the
party of Christian community), the merger of different factions of the Muslim
League (political wing of Muslims) into one, and the
much criticized appearance of a BJP- Hindu Munnani combine as a third front in
1980s are all unmistakable marks of a continuing legacy of the earlier communal
hangover in the society. The liberation
struggle against communist Ministry(1959),
Anti Malappuram District agitation(1979) and
Nilackal agitation (1983) contributed to the
communal strain in the society even before the formation of BJP. VHP-led Ram
Janmabhoomi campaign and Babri masjid demolition had its reverberations in
Kerala too. The passions generated by such events contributed to a marked
increase in clashes provoked by communal issues.
Hence, Saji P Jacob who has done an extensive work on communalization in Kerala
aptly questions the so called ‘cosmopolitan’ and ‘secular’ character of Kerala
society :
“A closer look at the most
recent of the political developments in Kerala suggests that there is also an
emerging problem of an intensification of communalism too, primarily as a
result of the prevailing socio-cultural practices. What is emerging here is the
fact that the claims of democratization, rationalization or the agenda of
socialistic or communistic transformation have not really brought forth with
them any significant turn of events. On the other hand, ironically, what has really
happened in Kerala is that the traditionalist communal loyalties have got
further legitimized under the modern political process too.”
Therefore,
the communal issues and discussions that popped up recently in the Kerala
polity are an enlarged reflection of the underlying communal consciousness
which was deeply ingrained in the Kerala society. This contemporary issues and
discussions bring forth the discontent against disproportionate political and
economic power enjoyed by non-Hindus into sharp focus. The dormant communal
character of the Kerala society, especially the communal politics of Muslims
and Christians, once thought to be harmless and accommodative are increasingly
viewed with suspicion and animosity. Three recent examples well illustrate the
situation.
There
was an animated discussion in 2012 on how the decision of the Indian Union
Muslim League, the second largest constituent of the Congress-led United
Democratic Front, to press its year-old demand for an additional ministerial
berth (fifth minister controversy) will affect the communal balance. Several
prominent Congressmen as well as leaders of the Communist Party of India-Marxist,
the Bharatiya Janata Party, the NSS and SNDP had opposed the move as it would
upset the communal balance. The cry of communal imbalance is a response to the
perceived over-representation of the minority communities in the present
government. Of the 21 ministers sworn in, six, including the chief minister,
were Christians and five Muslims. That made the minorities, which together
account for 44 per cent of the population, a majority in the government. A
fifth League minister will distort the picture further. B.R.P Bhaskar, a
prominent public intellectual and political observer in Kerala, comments:
“The League's stubbornness and the Kerala Congress's
support to it are manifestations of growing communal assertiveness, origins of
which can be traced to the 'liberation struggle' of 1959 which gave the Centre
the pretext to dismiss the Communist ministry. It is also a problem of narrow
social base of the political parties. League and the Kerala
Congress have narrowly constituted religious and region base.”
Secondly,
the incident of detention of 579 children from northern and eastern States
being taken to Muslim orphanages in Kerala without completing the legal
formalities triggered a controversy. It
was argued that the genuine mistakes or lapses on the part of the orphanage
authorities in strictly following the legal requirements regarding such
inter-State transfer of children were being blown out of proportion as part of
an agenda to whip up a controversy since the institutions involved were under
Muslim managements. Also, there were wild allegations that the incidents
indicated dubious motives of child trafficking and that the children were
eventually being exploited, that many of them were being indoctrinated or
recruited by fundamentalist groups.
Third
controversy was regarding the introduction of green writing boards in
classrooms. A green writing board was installed
in a government school in the Muslim dominated Malappuram district in northern
Kerala. The writing board was introduced by a Muslim League MLA in his
constituency as part of infrastructure development and with the support of the
MLA’s development funds. This move kicked up a controversy in Kerala with
members of other political parties, questioning the “ulterior motives” of the
Muslim League and accusing the MLA and his party of trying to communalize
public education.
These
controversies which attracted wide discussions are not odd incidents. Several
such discussions, whether original or manufactured, appear in the public with
an unprecedented regularity and gradually steering a communal mind in the
society in which deep suspicion towards minorities are grown. The allocation of
seats to Kerala Congress and Muslim League in certain Christian and Muslim dominated
constituencies is an established practice in Kerala politics. In
the present congress led UDF government in which Muslim League and Kerala
congress have strong influence, coalition constraints compel the congress to
appease both the parties. At the wake of these series of recent incidences
which attained communal color, these electoral practices and minority
appeasement policies are now widely perceived as communal domination of
Christian and Muslim community. BJP’s increased vote share in the recent
general election has to be placed in this particular context.
In
short, the conditions are favorable and facilitative for the saffron party. The
series of intense and boggy controversies over communal agendas moulds a
communally conscious and sensitive collective mind through which Hindu vote
consolidation is a near possibility. The communal imprints ingrained in Kerala
society even before its formation sharply resurfaces at the wake of these
controversies against which the myth of cosmopolitan society is a weak defense.
The uninspiring communist leadership which had compromised its secular agenda
for temporary electoral advantages may hardly offer an enduring fight. As news
channels arrange a third seats, along with UDF and LDF spokespersons, in their
premium time political discussions, BJP gains a first-time recognition and
respect. With the all powerful BJP government at the center, the enthusiasm and
temptation for the party to penetrate to this tiny land at the corner can never
be overlooked. Given the favorable external political climate and encouraging
communal discourse internally, it is difficult not to speculate a promising
prospect for BJP in Kerala